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试谈酒的第四产业链——解当前白酒销售难的思考
A Tentative Discussion on the Fourth Industrial Chain of the Liquor Industry: Reflections on Addressing the Current Difficulties in Baijiu Sales

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最近，因茅台酒价格下跌，酒市股价下滑，白酒销售大幅下降。很多白酒产销价格倒挂，经销商跑路。整个白酒行业生产下行，很多酒厂产大于销，库存积压，导致生产不能连续进行，很多白酒企业停产了。酒的销售成了贵州白酒当前最大的难题。于是乎，很多酒的企业纷纷集中精兵强将，加大营销投入，开拓各种营销渠道，力图解决营销问题。但，效果并不理想。昨，有酒企业董事长问我，如何解当前白酒之难，我有了一点思考，特回复之。
Recently, the baijiu market has faced significant challenges due to the decline in Moutai prices, leading to a drop in stock prices and a substantial decrease in baijiu sales. Many baijiu producers are experiencing an inversion of production and sales prices, causing distributors to abandon their operations. The entire industry is in a downturn, with numerous distilleries producing more than they can sell, resulting in stockpile accumulation and disrupted production processes. As a result, many baijiu companies have been forced to halt production. The current biggest challenge for Guizhou’s baijiu industry is sales. In response, many companies have mobilized their best resources, increased their marketing investments, and explored various channels in an effort to boost sales. Unfortunately, these efforts have not yielded the desired results. Yesterday, a chairman of a baijiu company asked me how to address the current difficulties facing the baijiu industry. After some consideration, I have formulated a few thoughts and would like to share them in response.
长久以来，人们都说酒的产业链是原料供给、工厂生产、市场营销三大产业链。无论是酒的生产教科书，或是酒生产营销管理，或是各大专家开讲的论坛，以及政府的注意力等等，都重点放在了酒的绿色原料种植，工厂集约生产，市场高效营销，并重点在销售渠道上开拓，产品营销推广上着力。若有进步，也只是在酒的品牌建设中，加入了文化和历史传承的内容等。
For a long time, the baijiu industry has been understood to revolve around three main components: raw material supply, factory production, and marketing. This perspective is reflected in baijiu production textbooks, production and marketing management practices, expert forums, and government initiatives. The focus has traditionally been on the cultivation of sustainable raw materials, efficient factory production, and effective marketing. Emphasis has been placed on expanding sales channels and promoting product marketing. Even when advancements have been made, they have primarily involved incorporating cultural and historical heritage into brand development.
我们说，产业链的划分是人们对客观存在的认识在一定阶段的产物。在上世纪，人们主要处于产品经济、短缺经济、营销经济中，生产是为了满足人的基本生活需要。进入新世纪，人的需求发生了很大的变化，人单一的物质生活需要，已成为过去。精神生活、文化生活、健康生活是人们重点追求的目标。这一变化，应该是人生产目标本源的一大进步，是逐渐进入一切为了人的科学发展的一大进步。既然生产的目的是为了人，产业链的划分也要不断随社会的发展而进步。为此，我们研究表明酒还存在一个消费产业链。这个产业链是最重要、最基本、最革命，也是最有引导作用的科学消费产业链。
The classification of industrial chains reflects our understanding of objective reality at specific stages of development. In the last century, economies were primarily product-driven, characterized by shortages and marketing economies, with production focused on meeting basic human needs. As we entered the new century, people’s needs have evolved significantly. The singular focus on material needs is now a thing of the past, with greater emphasis on spiritual, cultural, and healthy lifestyles. This shift represents a substantial advancement in the fundamental objectives of human production, marking significant progress towards a scientific development that prioritizes human well-being. Given that the purpose of production is to serve people, the classification of industrial chains must continuously evolve alongside societal development. Our research suggests that the baijiu industry also includes a consumption chain. This consumption chain is the most crucial, fundamental, revolutionary, and scientifically influential aspect of the industry.
经济和管理学家们划分产业链，总是从企业创造产品的工艺流程中，所涉及的生产要素在完成一次闭路循环，实现价值增值全过程入手的。就一家企业而言，我们通常称之为企业的价值链划分。我主持的国家自然科学基金项目，对此已有成功的研究成果。当这单一企业的过程涉及到了其它企业的配套和服务，并形成了相应的企业集群，也就使白酒企业价值链扩展形成了白酒产业链。基于这一理论分析，我们说白酒产业链应当分为原料供应链、工厂生产链、产品营销链、科学消费链四大产业链。因为，只有补上科学消费链，才能完成白酒全产业链的闭路循环，不然产品在营销链终止，只能让产品处于经销商库存中，这就是当前白酒产业困境的原因。
Economists and management scholars typically classify industrial chains based on the production elements involved in a company’s process of creating products, completing a closed-loop cycle, and achieving value addition. This is often referred to as the value chain of a company. In the national natural science foundation project I led, we achieved fruitful research outcomes in this area. When the processes of a single enterprise involve the support and services of other companies, forming corresponding business clusters, the value chain of a baijiu company expands into the baijiu industrial chain. Based on this theoretical analysis, we propose that the baijiu industrial chain should be divided into four major segments: the raw material supply chain, the factory production chain, the product marketing chain, and the scientific consumption chain. The inclusion of the scientific consumption chain is essential to complete the closed-loop cycle of the entire baijiu industrial chain. Without it, products stagnate at the end of the marketing chain, remaining in distributors’ inventories. Such stagnation is the root cause of the current difficulties faced by the baijiu industry.
这里科学消费链虽是第一次提出，实际已在我们过往的管理中，有过大量的实际运营。就茅台而言，早在本世纪初，就提出了茅台喝出健康理念，《2015年全球酒业发展报告》分析了茅台酒中的P53因子，有利于调动人防癌基因积极性，增强人体免疫力；在“2019年全球猜拳行令拳王争霸赛”中，我们对饮用赖茅酒的比赛者进行了测试研究，表明适量饮酒有利于提升人体包膜电位，提高人交叉神经的反应速度，有利用防止老年痴呆等等。也可能是这些酒有利于人健康的原因，相对来说这些酒进入消费链比较多，产品的增长比较好。但，如此等等，也只是开始触及了白酒科学消费产业链的皮毛。从有利于人的精神生活、文化生活、健康生活角度，无论是白酒科研工作者，相关协会工作者，或是原料、生产、营销企业等，我们都还有很多工作要做。我们要在科学消费链上，增加新质要素投入。寻求健康、科学、文化消费的渠道、方式、服务，如酒VI、酒医疗、酒娱乐、酒健康等新产业；在科学消费产业链上形成更多的企业配套和服务，形成新的产业集群，创造更多健康、绿色新品，提高酒质、酒品、酒种、酒量；改变过去从原料供应链入手，安排酒业营运的模式，从科学消费链入手，到逼传统三大产业链的变革和改造，相信这应该是解决贵州白酒当前和一劳永逸解决其问题的关键。
Although the concept of the scientific consumption chain is being introduced for the first time, it has actually been implemented in our past management practices. Consider Moutai as a case in point. At the turn of this century, Moutai pioneered the concept of “Moutai for Health.” The “2015 Development Reports of Global Alcohol Industry” highlighted the presence of the P53 factor in Moutai, which aids in activating anti-cancer genes and bolstering the human immune system. During the “2019 Global Finger Guessing Championship (a game played while drinking)”, tests were conducted on participants who consumed Laymao baijiu, revealing that moderate baijiu intake can enhance cellular membrane potential and quicken the response rate of the sympathetic nervous system, possibly mitigating the risk of Alzheimer's disease. These health benefits likely underpin the successful integration of these baijiu products into the consumption chain and their robust product growth. However, this understanding of the scientific consumption chain in the baijiu industry is merely the tip of the iceberg. From the vantage point of enriching spiritual, cultural, and healthy lifestyles, there remains a substantial agenda for baijiu researchers, industry associations, and entities involved in raw material sourcing, production, and marketing. We must infuse the scientific consumption chain with new qualitative elements, pursuing channels, methods, and services that are healthy, scientific, and culturally informed, such as wellness programs based on baijiu, medical applications, entertainment, and health-related industries. This approach can create more business support and services within the scientific consumption chain, forming new industry clusters, and producing healthier, greener products. By enhancing the quality, diversity, and volume of baijiu offerings and transitioning from the conventional raw material supply chain to the scientific consumption chain, we can catalyze the transformation and innovation of the traditional three major industrial chains. This pivot is essential for not only addressing the immediate challenges of Guizhou's baijiu industry but also securing a sustainable long-term solution. 

 

 

陈泽明博士后

By Dr. Chen Zeming

2024年7月31日

July 31, 2024

 

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